Dr. Robert Dietz
Get your tickets now!
2019 is almost upon us. Start your year off right with a forecast of the industry for the year ahead.
- When: January 22, 11:30 a.m.
- Location: Greenville Convention Center
- Keynote Speaker: Robert Dietz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders
The event is hosted by the HBA of Greenville, Greater Greenville Association of Realtors, Upstate Mortgage Lenders Association, and the Greenville Chamber of Commerce.
Make a day of it! Prior to the luncheon be sure to register for the mornings education sessions….more information to come.
Tell attendees about your business by setting up a vendor table at this event for $195 and showcase your product or services to the 300+ attendees. You can sign up using this registration link or by calling the HBA of Greenville office at 864-254-0133.
Upstate Housing Market Forecast honored
Your Home Builders Association of Greenville was honored by the Home Builders Association of South Carolina with an Association Celebration of Excellence (ACE) Award.
Honored was the association’s Upstate Housing Market Forecast Conference, held annually in partnership with the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors and the Upstate Mortgage Bankers Association. The award was presented at the Celebration of Excellence luncheon in Greenville earlier this month.
ACE Awards recognize the outstanding accomplishments of South Carolina’s HBAs in the
areas of Communications, Non-Dues Revenue, Membership Program/Event, Education, and
Workforce Development. These Awards represent the good works and added value that the local
associations provide to its membership and community.
The 2013 Upstate Housing Forecast sponsored by Clark’s Termite and Pest Control and produced by the Home Builders Association is scheduled for November 5, 2013 at the TD Convention Center. The keynote speaker is Dr. Joseph Von Nessen, Research Economist at RESH Marketing Consultants.
The HBA will host a table top forum for HBA members and prospective members during registration and immediately following the meeting. HBA members are invited to participate in the table top forum and will receive:
- One 6’ table for product and/or company display
- Category exclusivity
- Signage displayed at each company table
- Sponsorship inclusion on member e-vite
- Sponsorship listing on Builder Review
- Sponsorship listing with website link on www.HBAofGreenville.com
- Distribution of company collateral
There will be a maximum of 10 table top displays. Only HBA members in good standing may participate as a table top sponsor.
10:00 a.m.-11:00 a.m. – Legal Seminar with Gallivan White & Boyd
10:30 a.m.-11:00 a.m. – Set-Up
11:00 a.m.-11:30.a.m. – Registration/Table Top
11:30 a.m.-1:00 p.m. – Lunch/Meeting
1:00 p.m.-1:30 p.m. – Table Top
To reserve your table top, please call the HBA Office at 864.254.0133
NAHB’s semi-annual Construction Forecast Conference is just a month away. Details are:
- Wednesday, October 2, 2013
- 2 p.m. until 4 p.m.
- View webinar for $29.95 at your own office by clicking here or
- Watch it free at the HBA Office by clicking here
The conference will feature presentations by NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, Moody Analytic’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi, and NAHB Forecasting Economist Robert Denk. If you join us at the HBA Office you will have the opportunity to enjoy beer and wings with your fellow members. There is no charge for HBA members. Nonmembers will be charged $25.
Below is a sampling of Dr. Crowe’s recent projections:
For the Greenville MSA, housing starts history and projects:
(000s) 2012 2013 2014
Total 2.4 2.9 3.4
SF 2.2 2.7 3.2
MF 0.2 0.2 0.2
Dr. Crowe will update his projections for the conference on October 2.
In addition, Dr. Crowe provided the following analysis at the NAHB Legislative Conference in June in Washington DC:
- Since the fourth quarter of 2011, housing has led the economic recovery and Crowe notes that housing really needs other sectors of the economy to begin recovering in order for a full recovery to take hold.
- For the last two quarters housing employment is growing faster than other industry sectors.
- Multi-family and remodeler confidence now exceeds 50, but single family remains below 50 and suffers from momentum issues caused by credit, labor, and land availability. (Note that SF confidence is now at 58.)
- Remodeling activity is being held back by slow resales. Resales have slowed because of lack of inventory, which has helped put upward pressure on new home starts. However, remodeling is closely tied to resales, so remodeling is going to continue to experience slow growth, but growth none-the-less.
- Since the downturn, renters have outpaced owners in terms of household formation. In fact many households have converted from owning to renting. However, Crowe did state that the industry is getting close to answering pent up demand for multifamily. He suggested that current levels of construction will answer demand for multifamily and much more growth in volume will result in over building.
- Single family still lags behind and is below 50 percent of normal, nationally. He stated that headwinds (credit, land, and labor availability) plus damage to the industry from the recession (lack of a supply chain, labor) will continue to hold single family back for a while. In addition, buyers are still measured in their desire to jump back into homeownership or a move up.
- Check the slide on Buyer Credit Squeeze. Anyone who tells you that credit standards have not increased is not looking at the data.
- Crowe stated that labor availability seems to be a bigger problem for production builders than other builders and remodelers.
- Materials prices have returned to pre-recession levels.
And while you are thinking about economics, mark you calendar for November 5 when Dr. Joseph Von Nessen of the University of South Carolina Moore School of Business will present the Upstate Housing Market Forecast.
Dr. David Crowe, Chief Economist of the National Association of Home Builders, predicted continued growth in new home construction in 2013 at the sixth annual Upstate Housing Market Forecast Luncheon. The buzz was clearly in the room: housing is on the rebound.
All segments of the home building industry should continue to grow in 2013, according to the NAHB Economics housing and economic forecast. Single-family and multifamily construction will see strong growth rates, with remodeling experiencing lesser but still positive growth. Driven by demographic factors, the 55+ sector should witness growth comparable to that of single-family and multifamily building.
Growth in the housing industry remains critical for the economy as a whole, as the preliminary fourth-quarter GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis demonstrates. Due to declines in government spending and business inventories, the initial estimate for economic growth for the last three months of 2012 turned down at -0.1%. However, home building (residential fixed investment or RFI) was a net contributor on the growth side of the equation for the seventh consecutive quarter.
For the final quarter of 2012, RFI added 0.36 percentage points to GDP, the second-highest tally since the end of the Great Recession. Put another way, had home building been flat for the quarter, the initial estimate for fourth-quarter GDP would have been strongly negative at 0.46%.
And NAHB expects this growth for home building to continue. For the single-family market, there were 535,500 housing starts in 2012, a 24% increase over 2011. The current rate of single-family construction is now up 74% from the market low point of March 2009 but represents only 44% of “normal” conditions (levels of activity comparable to the period of 2000 through 2003). For 2013, we forecast that single-family starts will total 650,000, a growth rate of 22%. And we expect that growth to accelerate into 2014, when single-family construction will grow another 30%.
Multifamily construction will continue expanding into 2013. This rebound has come more easily than other parts of the housing industry due in part to the strong demand for rental properties. After 56% growth off market lows in 2010, multifamily starts totaled 244,500 in 2012, a growth rate of 37%. NAHB expects this trend to continue, with slowing but still positive growth in future years. For 2013, we forecast a multifamily starts total of 299,000, a 22% increase over the prior year. And in 2014, we expect a smaller 6% growth rate to reach a starts total of 317,000.
Remodeling should also benefit from generally improving housing conditions. Total remodeling activity was up 4.5% from 2011 to 2012, despite the temporary sunset of a commonly claimed energy-efficiency tax credit for existing homes. For 2013, NAHB forecasts additional 2.4% growth, with 1.7% for 2014.
Focusing on the growing 55+ housing market reveals trends similar to that of the overall home building industry. NAHB estimates that total starts allocable to 55+ communities will increase 21.9% to 74,000 in 2013 19.9% to 89,000 in 2014. Demographics are driving this growth: The share of U.S. households aged 55 and over will increase from 42% in 2012 to 46.6% in 2020. Single-family 55+ starts will be up 23% in 2013 to a total of 37,500, while construction of multifamily 55+ housing units will increase 20.8% to a starts total of about 37,000.
The across-the-board growth forecast for the housing sector should result in job gains in 2013. NAHB estimates that on average every, single-family home built creategenerates enough work to create three jobs. Correspondingly, every multifamily unit constructed and every $100,000 in remodeling expenditures each generate one job.
The positive forecast for 2013 and 2014 builds on the gains for housing in 2012. However, there was some slowing of elements of housing at the end of the year. The Pending Home Sales Index, produced by the National Association of Realtors, fell in December but remains strongly higher year over year. Similarly, existing home sales declined a little for the last month of 2012, but the current sales pace is up 13% compared to December 2011. Inventories of existing homes continued their decline.
According to the Census Bureau, the seasonally adjusted homeownership rate remained unchanged at 65.3% during the final three months of 2012. For the year as a whole, the homeownership rate averaged approximately 65.5% – the weakest calendar year average since 1996. Homeownership rates declined across all age groups compared to the fourth quarter of 2011; however, the largest year-over-year decline occurred among households headed by a person between 35 and 44 years old.
The declining homeownership rate for these younger households certainly helped to boost multifamily production for the year. For December, the annual rate of starts in buildings with five or more apartments increased 23%. The five-plus current starts rate is now up 115% year over year.
But the overall improving conditions for housing are reflected in the current Federal Reserve Beige Book. According to the report, real estate activity continues to grow, with all Fed districts except one reporting that residential construction expanding. The exception – the Kansas City District – noted that “increased lumber and drywall costs limited construction.”
Lending activity continues to improve, albeit at a moderate pace. The Beige Book indicated that tightness in mortgage lending may be showing signs of recovery in certain regions of the country. Overall, loan demand was higher or held steady in nine of the ten districts. Credit standards remained “largely unchanged,” though two districts, Atlanta and Chicago, reported that standards may have “loosened some.” In the Atlanta District, aggressive competition for highly qualified borrowers was leading a growing willingness on the part of banks to increase their risk tolerance and loosen credit standards.