Priced Out: How a $1,000 increase in the cost of a new home affects buyers

Did You Know…

A $1,000 increase in the price of a new home prices out 380 families from home ownership in the Upstate?  According to the National Association of Home Builders, the average price of a new home in the Upstate is $277,468.  The income needed to qualify for an average-priced new home is $67,900, almost $9,000 higher than the median household income of $58,200.

Your HBA’s Top 12 Actions in 2012, Number 12: Housing Economics research and tools

The grand finale!  For the past 12 days Builder Review Daily has highlighted the Top 12 national actions taken on behalf of HBA members by NAHB.  Today is the final action.

Number 12, Housing Economics research and tools:

NAHB’s economics team constantly produces fresh, useful analysis of the most recent housing-related data that has applications to our members’ businesses, and makes that data available to our members free of charge. Below are a few highlights of our research released since the builders’ show:

The NAHB Priced Out Model – This newly updated tool estimates how many households can qualify for a new home mortgage both before and after a house price increase. Along with this tool, we have produced a comprehensive analysis of how such price gains impact Americans in 325 metropolitan areas as of 2012. The research paper notes that every time a local or regional government raises construction costs by, for example, increasing building permit or impact fees, the final price of the home to the buyer usually goes up by more than the increase in the government fee. This is because other costs such as commissions and financing charges automatically rise as well. As an example, for every $1 increase in fees incurred when acquiring a building permit, the final price of a new home to its ultimate buyer rises by $1.20. Read the full study on our website or contact Natalia Siniavskaia (800-368-5242 x8441).

Snapshot of Homeownership in Local Housing Markets – Based on a comprehensive study of newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010 American Community Survey, this research provides helpful information on individual metropolitan areas across the country and ranks them according to a number of important measures. For example, metros with the highest homeownership rates include Palm Coast, Fla. (81.5%), Holland-Grand Haven, Mich. (80%), Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. (79.8%), Monroe, Mich. (78.8%) and Ocala, Fla. (78.4%). This paper also ranks housing markets according to tightest metros (lowest home owner vacancy rate); highest home owner incomes; fastest-growing markets/growth of owner-occupied housing units; and fastest-growing markets due to new construction. Contact: Heather Taylor (800-368-5242 x8503).

Maintenance Costs for New vs. Older Homes – NAHB’s economists have recently conducted an analysis of data from the 2009 American Housing Survey that quantifies the savings that a newly built home can generate for the buyer in terms of monthly energy and maintenance costs. These data highlight how much cheaper it can be to own and operate a newly built home versus an older one, and also further the argument for reforming the current appraisals system to accurately reflect the flow of benefits stemming from the features of a newly built home. Contact: Rob Dietz (800-368-5242 x8285).

Updated Affordable House Price Calculator — This is a handy tool to have at your fingertips when a prospective buyer is not sure how much home they can comfortably afford based on their available income and downpayment. Based on conventional mortgage underwriting standards and national average assumptions about mortgage, tax and insurance rates, the calculator shows that a family who earns $60,000 a year and has a $10,000 downpayment can afford to purchase a home priced up to about $218,500. Contact: Paul Emrath (800-368-5242 x8449).

Identifying Who Lives in Newly Built Homes — NAHB’s economists recently examined data from the government’s American Housing Survey (AHS) to produce a revealing report on the composition of households that are living in today’s newly constructed homes. One interesting finding is that larger households are relatively more likely to live in new homes (defined as those built within the last four years). In fact, 47% of all newly built homes have three or more people living in them. The reason behind this statistic is that new construction is more likely to house children than other types of housing on a unit-by-unit basis. Contact Rob Dietz (800-368-5242 x8285).

Identifying Inadequate Housing Units — Using data from the American Housing Survey and statistical models that estimate house prices and apartment rents based on characteristics of homes, NAHB researchers have developed a more accurate definition of what constitutes “inadequate” housing than is traditionally used by HUD. This new criteria identifies substantially more inadequate housing units in the U.S. than the government has reported, particularly among the single-family and older housing stock. In fact, our findings indicate that there are over 10 million homes across this country that are physically inadequate. This data means that the effective inventory of existing homes on the market may actually be well overstated. Contact: Paul Emrath (800-368-5242 x8449).

NAHB Survey Finds Kitchens, Bathrooms Still Top Remodeling Jobs — A newly released survey by NAHB shows that kitchen and bathroom projects remain the most popular remodeling jobs, with home owners increasingly upgrading both rooms and making major repairs as they decide to remain in their current residence instead of moving. Both kitchen and bathroom remodeling projects were up 17% from the last time this survey was taken in 2010, with bathroom remodels cited as a common job by 78% of remodelers and kitchen remodels by 69%. Other popular remodeling categories included window/door replacements (at 44%), whole-house remodels (at 35%), room additions (at 33%) and handyman services (at 31%). For complete survey results, visit Contact: Nissa Hiatt (800-368-5242 x8451).

Regular production of important indexes that gauge the health of the housing industry – Included in these offerings are the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index on builder confidence, the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, the Remodeling Market Index, the Multifamily Market Indices and the 50+ Housing Market Index. The surveys and analysis that NAHB’s economists conduct on a monthly and quarterly basis help our members achieve a better understanding of current market trends and where they are headed, while our media outreach in this regard ensures that accurate information on the housing market is transmitted to potential home buyers and the public at large. NAHB uses this data to conduct extensive media outreach in which we educate reporters about the historical context in which numbers should be viewed, discourage sensationalized accounts and ensure that home builders’ views are represented. NAHB also assists our members in dealing with media inquiries regarding recent releases of both NAHB and government data.

By the Numbers, NAHB’s Priced Out Analysis: 431

Three years ago NAHB released an analysis that helps assess the impact of any action that increases the price of a new home.  This Spring NAHB updated that analysis, call the “Priced Out Effect,” including an analysis by metro area.

Nationally, a $1,000 increase in the price of a home prices out 232,447 families from homeownership.  In Greenville, 431 families are priced out of homeownership by that same $1,000 price increase.
What can increase the price of a new home?  Many things including government regulation, increases in prices for materials and labor, and even crime.  One recent example is the efforts by the fire sprinkler industry to mandate automatic fire sprinklers in new homes.  Assuming a $6,000 increase in the price of a typical new home, the fire sprinkler mandate will price out 2,586 families from owning a new home in the greater Greenville area.

NAHB: Families “Priced Out” Report Updated

Did you know that in Greenville, South Carolina, 431 families are priced out of home ownership for each $1,000 increase in the price of a home?  Nationally, 232,447 families are priced out when home prices rise $1,000.

This may seem academic, but according to NAHB’s model, 1.1 million households in the U.S. will be priced out of home ownership by the recent increase in mortgage fees imposed by Congress to pay for the payroll tax holiday.

Read more on the Priced Out analysis at by clicking here.