David Crowe Predicts 2016 Market
Hear what National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Dr. David Crowe has to say about the housing market in 2016. Hint: when David Crowe wears a pink tie, he is optimistic.
Positive Outlook for Housing Market
A firming economy, solid job growth, rising consumer confidence, higher household formations and pent-up demand are helping to bring buyers back into the marketplace, and these factors will bode well for housing in 2016, according to economists speaking at the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas.
“There are a number of positive indicators that provide solid evidence this will be a good year for housing and the economy,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
Private sector job growth has been averaging 240,000 per month over the past two years, GDP growth is expected to climb slightly above last year’s level and consumer confidence is nearly back to its pre-recession peak, Crowe noted.
Builders report their top concerns in 2016 include the cost and availability of developed lots and labor, federal environmental regulations and policies that are making it more expensive and difficult to build homes, and building materials prices.
Solid Gains for Single-Family Production
NAHB is forecasting 1.26 million total housing starts in 2016, up 13.4% from a projected 1.11 million starts in 2015.
NAHB is forecasting 1.26 million total housing starts in 2016, up 13.4% from a projected 1.11 million starts in 2015.
Single-family production is expected to reach 840,000 units this year, an 18 percent increase from a projected tally of 711,000 units in 2015. Using the 2000-2003 period as a healthy benchmark when single-family starts averaged 1.34 million units on an annual basis, Crowe said the ongoing housing recovery will see single-family starts steadily climb from 55% of normal production at the end of the third quarter of 2015 all the way up to 87% of normal by the end of 2017.
On the multifamily side, NAHB is anticipating 417,000 starts in 2016, up 5% from an expected total of 397,000 units last year.
Meanwhile, residential remodeling activity is expected to register a 1.1% gain this year over 2015.
A Bright Regional Outlook – With One Exception
Delving below the national numbers, David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, said that most regional housing markets look healthy.
Delving below the national numbers, David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, said that most regional housing markets look healthy.
Labor market conditions, a key driver of housing demand, are strong in many metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) – supporting faster household formations and boosting local housing activity through rising incomes. These factors indicate that most of the 400 local housing markets “should see sustained growth in the coming year,” Berson said.
With the unemployment rate declining in 90 percent of the MSAs over the past year, Berson said that the housing fundamentals are the strongest in over a decade, a trend supported by the labor market, demographics and consumer preference to own.
However, Berson noted that many MSAs with strong ties to energy exploration and production in states including Louisiana, Texas, Wyoming and South Dakota are expected to see limited housing expansion in the near term, as low oil prices are reducing employment.
Mortgage Rates: From ‘Cheap’ to Low
Frank Nothaft, chief economist of CoreLogic, foresees solid fundamentals for housing in 2016. With 30-year fixed-rate mortgages running at or below 4% during the past year, Nothaft called them “cheap.” He said mortgage rates are expected to gradually rise one-quarter to one-half a percentage point this year up to 4.5%, going from “cheap to low.”
Frank Nothaft, chief economist of CoreLogic, foresees solid fundamentals for housing in 2016. With 30-year fixed-rate mortgages running at or below 4% during the past year, Nothaft called them “cheap.” He said mortgage rates are expected to gradually rise one-quarter to one-half a percentage point this year up to 4.5%, going from “cheap to low.”
Nothaft added that overall home sales will rise 4-5 percent in 2016, led by a 13 percent gain for new home sales, with sales volume and growth strongest in the South and West. “There is stronger growth in households, population and demand for new housing” in these regions, he said.
Nationwide home prices this year will increase about 4-5% above last year’s level and are projected to reach the 2006 peak by mid-2017, Nothaft said. Tight mortgage credit for consumers is expected to ease slowly this year, but remain relatively tight compared to 15-20 years ago.
New Home Sales Rise 4.3% in November
Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in November, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
“It is encouraging to see new-home sales continue to tick upward,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods. “Builders are also increasing their inventory even as they face difficulties accessing lots and labor.”
Regionally, sales rose 20.5% in the West and 4.5% in the South. Sales fell 28.6% in the Northeast and 8.6% in the Midwest.
“Limited gains in new-home sales can be attributed to a weak existing sales report,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “People who already own a house comprise most of the new residential construction market, and they often must sell their existing home before making another purchase.”
The inventory of new homes for sale was 232,000 units in November. This is a 5.7-month supply at the current sales pace. This increase in new home sales shows the continuation of growth in the industry.
New Home Sales Drop in September
Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 11.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000 units in September, according to newly released data from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Despite this monthly drop, our members continue to tell us that housing is moving in the right direction,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods. “Consumers may have simply been reacting to soft job numbers.”
“It is not surprising to see sales pull back in September following a strong August reading, especially after a few months of weak job creation,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, new-home sales year to date are up 17.6% compared to the same period of 2014, and we expect the market to continue improving at a gradual but steady pace for the rest of year.”
Regionally, new home sales were down across the board. Sales fell 61.8% in the Northeast, 8.3% in the Midwest, 8.7% in the South and 6.7% in the West.
The inventory of new homes for sale was 225,000 units in September. This is a 5.8-month supply at the current sales pace.
Economists to Discuss Housing Outlook at Upcoming Webinar
Crystal balls and magic 8 balls will not be used. Rather, industry experts will rely on hard data, notable trends and key insights as they discuss the housing outlook for 2016 and beyond during the Fall Construction Forecast Webinar.
NAHB will host the semi-annual event tomorrow Wednesday, Oct. 21, from 2-4 p.m. ET. Leading economists and finance experts will examine some of the most pressing issues in housing, including:- Predictions of housing’s path in 2016-17
- Hurdles regarding labor and land shortage
- Changes in demographics and demand
- Actions and impacts of the Federal Reserve
During the webinar, NAHB chief Economist David Crowe, NAHB chief economist, will break down complex concerns impacting the building industry. Robert Denk, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, will then present a state-by-state analysis of key areas such as housing prices, starts and employment.
Trulia Housing Economist Ralph McLaughlin will also join as a special guest. McLaughlin’s specialties include housing economics, land use and housing policy, and industrial geography.
Participants will be able to submit their questions online throughout the webinar.
For more information and to register, go to nahb.org.